How many titles would Senna have won?

Ayrton Senna won three world titles. All at the Japanese Grand Prix. Each in very different circumstances.

1988 showed him at his very best. After stalling on the grid, he carved his way through the field in changeable weather conditions to take a famous victory.

1990 arguably showed him at his worst. Whilst there were extenuating circumstances involving which side of the grid pole position should be on and an injunction by FISA president Jean Marie Balestre, the Brazilian crashed into Alain Prost – deliberately, he later admitted – to claim the title. A mirror of their controversial collision a year earlier that saw Prost crowned champion.

And then, in 1991, Senna honoured an agreement with teammate Gerhard Berger to let him pass to claim his first win for McLaren after Senna’s championship was confirmed.

That is just a snapshot of an incomparable character in the world of F1. But this is not about stories told many times over; it is about what could have been…

The two years following Senna’s third championship were tales of Williams dominance – with Nigel Mansell in 1992 and Prost in 1993 – which saw Senna become disillusioned with McLaren and their ability to provide him with a championship-winning car. When Prost retired at the end of 1993, Senna took his Williams seat.

Sadly, with barely 50 laps completed for the team, the 1994 San Marino Grand Prix brought about the great man’s untimely demise. But now, more than a quarter of a century on, let’s explore the possibilities of what may have happened had he successfully navigated Tamburello.

I’ve gone through the following seasons and done my best to hypothesise the outcomes, based on race events, drivers’ records on the circuits, overall driver ability, car reliability, statistical luck and (where possible) the butterfly effect.

(I will be writing definitively and in the past tense, but obviously I am not stating this absolutely would have been the case – it’s just easier that way.)

1994

We know how the 1994 season started – with two retirements for Senna and two wins for Michael Schumacher. But Williams were beginning to understand the FW16 at this point, with Senna saying it had felt noticeably better in the Imola warm-up, and that was to continue as the season progressed. Whether Benetton’s performance also decreased, after Senna’s suspicions regarding their car’s legality were proved to be at least partially true, is up for debate.

Senna held off the threat of Schumacher in Imola to finally get off the mark with a first victory for his new team, raising an Austrian flag from the cockpit in memory of Roland Ratzenberger who had died the previous day. He then went on a consistent run of podium finishes through the European season, featuring wins in Spain, Belgium and Portugal, whilst two disqualifications followed by a two-race ban for Schumacher thoroughly brought Senna back into the championship fight.

On his return from the ban, Schumacher found himself four points behind. A win at Jerez levelled things up with two rounds to go, before a Senna masterclass in the rain at Suzuka saw him regain the advantage, albeit with the championship still finely balanced for the final race.

The championship leader took pole but was beaten off the line by Damon Hill and Schumacher. The three pulled away from the field with the order remaining the same through the tight Adelaide turns; Hill’s lead was crucial to Senna’s championship hopes. But, on lap 36, Schumacher made that mistake. Senna bided his time in passing, and a collision was no use to the German with a six-point deficit, so Hill took the victory and Senna the world title.

1995

There would surely have been flashpoints in 1995. There were enough between Schumacher and Hill, so factor in some South American fire and the already-growing tension between the two drivers and fireworks would have been an inevitability.

Now kitted out with the Renault engine, Benetton came back stronger in 1995. The Williams, whilst fast, was very unreliable, the two drivers experiencing a combined eight retirements caused by mechanical failures. Despite some opportunities for Senna to show his brilliance in changeable conditions at Imola and Suzuka, the Benetton/Schumacher combination was too strong.

Tensions came to a head when the reigning champion and the champion-elect collided at Monza, resulting in both retiring and each laying the blame at the other’s door.

The German went on to claim eight wins in total and wrapped up his maiden championship with one round to spare. It was a deserved victory with some inspired Schumacher drives, Hill even applauding his rival’s performance at the side of the track after having retired from the European Grand Prix. Senna pondered his next move…

1996

Now. Things are about to get a bit more complex…and even more hypothetical.

Senna had spoken of his want to drive for Ferrari. Luca di Montezemolo revealed fairly recently that he had met with Senna just days before that tragic San Marino Grand Prix to discuss a potential future move, with Senna saying that he ‘really appreciated’ Ferrari’s stand against electronic driver aids. They reportedly offered him a US$22 million-a-year deal to join from 1996 and his former manager, Julian Jakobi, believes he would have accepted it.

Schumacher would still have wanted out of Benetton, though. Having been a Mercedes protégé in his junior career, the opportunity to join them in their new project with McLaren would have appealed and, in this universe, David Coulthard would not have had his chance at Williams in 1994 so would not be filling the seat alongside Mika Häkkinen.

To tie up the loose ends, Jean Alesi still moves to Benetton but Berger would not have left Ferrari with Senna arriving rather than Schumacher. And then Jacques Villeneuve fills Senna’s vacated Williams seat.

At the front, the Williams car was the dominant force. Senna experienced something of a repeat of the previous season with an occasionally fast but unreliable car, allowing him to take a few impressive victories but ultimately falling short.

The Spanish Grand Prix was the race of the season; a battle for the ages with Senna and Schumacher on a different plane to the others, navigating the soaked Catalunya circuit three seconds per lap faster than the rest of the field. The original ‘Rainmaster’ took on the new ‘Regenmeister’ and narrowly came out on top after a two-hour masterclass in wet weather driving from the pair.

Ferrari came on strong towards the end of the season, with Senna winning three of the last four races, but it was too late and Hill comfortably won the championship. The Brazilian was at ease, though, comfortable in his new surroundings at Maranello and inspired by the prospect of returning the Scuderia to former glories.

1997

Hill still leaves Williams as champion but the rest of the main players stay put, meaning we have a title battle between Villeneuve in the Williams, Senna in the Ferrari and the McLaren pair of Schumacher and Häkkinen.

The season opened with a McLaren-dominated race but that would prove to be a false dawn. The newly silver machines’ form fell away dramatically and Schumacher would only manage one podium in the next 10 races. So, it was to be a tale of Senna vs. Villeneuve.

The Brazilian finally won again in Monaco, after an unthinkable four-year wait, before triumphing in three of the next five races to establish a comfortable lead. Villeneuve and Williams rallied, though, and won two on the bounce in Austria and ‘Luxembourg’ (the Nürburgring) to retake the lead with two rounds remaining, before inexplicably withdrawing an appeal against Villeneuve’s disqualification in Japan and handing the advantage back to Senna.

This left a title showdown in Jerez with Villeneuve closing in on Senna for the lead… You could argue Schumacher’s infamous ‘you’ve hit the wrong part of him, my friend’ move would not be entirely out of character for Senna.

However, this was a more mature Senna, free of Balestre’s politics, and – more importantly – second place was enough for the Brazilian to win the championship. Villeneuve passed Senna to take the win but that was not enough to deny him a fifth world title.

1998

There is a question as to whether Senna – about to turn 38 and having emulated his hero Juan Manuel Fangio‘s five World Drivers’ Championships – would then retire. But I can’t see his passion and drive relinquishing just yet. Teammate Berger, however, does retire and, much to the chagrin of Senna, Ferrari hire his former boxing partner, Eddie Irvine.

It quickly became apparent that Adrian Newey had designed a gem at McLaren, with Schumacher and Häkkinen dominating the early races and Senna struggling to remain unlapped in a third-place finish at Interlagos. The reigning champion did manage to sneak a win at the Argentine Grand Prix, though; a race featuring the worst pit stop ever.

The Ferrari was reliable but ultimately didn’t have the pace to match the McLarens at most races where they stayed out of trouble. Senna remained in the hunt for the championship thanks to some excellent drives and the McLaren pair taking points away from each other.

Häkkinen had opened up an early lead whilst Schumacher had suffered three retirements, but the German gradually clawed his way back. Häkkinen span in Belgium and suffered an engine failure in Italy, which set up an epic finale with all three drivers capable of winning the title at the final race. A second-place finish was good enough for Schumacher to narrowly take his second title and, in scenes similar to Senna and Prost in 1993, the former champion held his rival’s arm aloft on the podium. Senna was satisfied with his achievements and already aware of his next – and final – move.

1999

Senna apparently told his good friend Gian Carlo Minardi several times that he wanted to end his career at Faenza. “The last year I do in Formula 1 will be with you”, Autosprint quotes Senna as having told Minardi. “I’ll drive for free but we’ll take away the satisfaction of bringing your car away from the back row.” Senna was largely an honest man and I see him being true to his word. A different, one-season challenge for the Brazilian to round off his career in the final year of the millennium.

(Yes, yes – I know that the new millennium technically began in 2001…)

A shock move to perennial backmarkers Minardi saw Senna trying to drag the team away from the back of the grid, in what he announced would be his final year in the sport. At the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, a race with only eight finishers, Senna ran in the points briefly before retiring with gearbox issues.

Another race of high attrition at the following round in Brazil, though, saw Senna take Minardi’s first point in five seasons in front of an adoring home crowd. Astonishingly, that was followed up by another point in San Marino, thanks in part to yet another race with fewer than 10 drivers seeing the chequered flag.

Reality then hit, however, with no points in the next 10 races. Senna’s technical ability, along with money brought in from newly interested sponsors, helped develop the 1999 Minardi but it was nonetheless mostly a case of Senna wrestling the car into decent midfield positions.

That was, until the European Grand Prix. An incident-packed race in changeable conditions – very much playing to the veteran’s strengths – saw Johnny Herbert take an unlikely victory for the Stewart team and Senna an even more unlikely first ever podium for Minardi.

Sadly, Senna was to retire from his last ever race with an engine failure but walked back to the pits with a fitting send-off of a standing ovation from the ever-enthusiastic Japanese fans.

So, there you have it. For what they’re worth, those are my wild hypotheses for a scenario that sadly wasn’t to be.

It is no secret how adored Senna was in Brazil and his ambition to one day move into politics and improve his beloved home country were well-known. The ramifications of Senna’s loss extend beyond the sport, potentially to a global, political level. A successful run for presidency would have been far from a pipe dream; much crazier things have happened in the world of politics. (Just look at the last few years…)

But one thing is certain – Ayrton Senna da Silva would always have been and will forever be an icon and a legend. His intensity, passion and charisma transcended the sport. He will never be forgotten.