It’s that time of year again.
The teams have packed up in Barcelona and now prepare for the long haul to Melbourne for the season-opener. Meanwhile, the rest of us try to figure out who was ‘sandbagging’, who was doing ‘glory runs’, who’s worried about their reliability and who’s quietly confident.
Let me pose some questions.
A Few Worries for Mercedes?
Mercedes continued their fine form from the first week of testing for the most part, but it wasn’t all plain sailing. Reigning world champion Lewis Hamilton missed most of the penultimate day after an oil pressure anomaly caused a precautionary shutdown of the power unit. There had been a couple of other more minor engine-related issues prior to that and Williams, who are an engine customer of Mercedes, had similar problems.
Could this be an Achilles heel for the six-time world champions? We’ve seen the impact having to run on reduced power has had on the team in the past; at high altitude and with high temperatures in Austria last year, they suffered with engine overheating and were not on the level of Ferrari or Red Bull. Have they pushed their new engine too far in trying to catch up to the possibly illegal (more on that later) power achieved by Ferrari last year? Time will tell. But at least they have discovered the issues now. Better in testing than in qualifying or the race in Melbourne.
You can be sure that they will leave no stone unturned back at Mercedes HQ and the Silver Arrows certainly still head into the season as the team to beat. But maybe this development will have given some hope to those in the two garages next door. Speaking of which…
Can Red Bull and/or Ferrari Really Challenge This Year?
Having kept their heads down for the first week of testing, the other two members of the ‘big three’ started to show their hand a little more as they entered the final couple of days.
Ferrari spent the first week insisting that they were in trouble, that they were not sandbagging and that they may well even be battling with the midfield this year. But there was always a hint of the-Italian-lady-doth-protest-too-much about it. And it could be seen from an impressively fast and consistent long run by Charles Leclerc on the final day that they have been keeping their true pace under wraps.
The car was still very slow on the straights, however. How much of that is down to conservative power modes and how much is due to their focus on increasing downforce levels in slower corners will probably only become apparent during Q3 in Australia.
After last year’s pre-season testing promised far more than the season ended up delivering for the Scuderia, they have been maybe too self-deprecating this time round.
Red Bull have taken a similarly reserved approach, with even the notoriously outspoken Dr Helmut Marko not producing anything especially headline worthy. They have been producing solid lap times throughout the test, however, and look like they could pose a real threat to Mercedes. Max Verstappen did suffer a surprisingly high number of spins which raised suspicions about whether the new car has issues with stability on corner entry. The Dutchman dismissed these rumours with talk of the weather conditions and “finding the car’s limits”.
If there is nothing substantial to those rumours then Red Bull are looking in pretty good shape to take the fight to the world champions. Verstappen’s fastest time was only half a second down on that of Valtteri Bottas – who achieved the best lap for Mercedes during the first week – and was completed on a harder tyre. Watch this space.
Who Will Be Best of the Rest?
Assuming that Ferrari’s talk of being comparable with those in the midfield is simply a case of tempering expectations, the fight for fourth place and ‘best of the rest’ is looking mighty tight.
Racing Point have caused many a raised eyebrow with their new car thanks to its striking resemblance to last year’s Mercedes; particularly once it had gone nearly as fast as the championship-winning car. Their two drivers – Sergio Pérez and Lance Stroll – spent large periods of testing in the top three and Pérez struggled to hide his glee during every interview, describing this year’s challenger as “the best car I’ve had in pre-season“.
The more established heads of the midfield – McLaren and Renault – pride themselves on making all their own parts and will be very bitter if they are beaten by a “Pink Mercedes“. But it all seems quite logical when technical director Andrew Green says they simply “copied the quickest car from last year”. He also pointed out that they had not had the budget to do so in the past but, with Lawrence Stroll’s investment, they can now achieve great things. And, in fairness, this is a team that has perennially punched above its weight.
McLaren and Renault aren’t looking too bad themselves though.
Last year’s ‘Formula 1.5‘ champions have produced another handsome papaya and blue machine which, whilst they don’t appear to have been doing glory runs, looks like it will be there or thereabouts come Melbourne. It has produced some impressive long runs and the team seem very content with their work so far.
Renault, after a very disappointing 2019, have seemingly ripped up their former blueprints and started from scratch. A visibly different car, with a far thinner (and uniquely rounded) nose and reprofiled sidepods and airbox, looks like it could propel them back to the front of the midfield. Daniel Ricciardo’s lap, which left him top of the timings on the penultimate day, looked fast and a lot of their last car’s issues seem to have been solved.
Whilst those three are the favourites to fight for fourth, the others are not far behind. AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo, Haas and even Williams have looked to be in the mix at varying points throughout the two weeks and the general consensus is that the midfield, as a whole, has closed the gap to the top three.
All this makes for the prospect of some great racing in the final year of these regulations. And, whilst we all agree that the new regulations were necessary for the health of the sport, it is ironic that the best racing always seems to happen at the end of a set of regulations, once all the teams have figured out what works best, copied each other a fair bit, and the pack has levelled out.
A Couple of Other Points of Order
The two other pressing issues in the sport right now are the FIA ruling regarding Ferrari’s engine last year and, as with most of the world, the Coronavirus.
The FIA revealed on Friday – conveniently just as pre-season testing was concluding – that they had “reached a settlement” with Ferrari after a “thorough technical investigation” into last year’s engine but would be keeping the specifics of said settlement between the two parties.
The opacity and underhandedness of this decision has shocked and infuriated the other teams. The term “settlement” certainly appears to imply wrongdoing on Ferrari’s part but, if that is the case, then why such leniency? Especially considering that would mean the team were using an illegal engine for most of the season.
The announcement was clearly timed to avoid lots of talk in the paddock through testing but you can be sure that the teams will not have forgotten by Melbourne. The drama here is far from over as Ferrari’s competitors “consider their next steps”.
Barring some kind of mass protest by those teams, the Australian Grand Prix does, at least, look likely to go ahead…
Some of the others remain very much in the balance. The Chinese Grand Prix has inevitably been postponed – and it will be a challenge for them to find a spot in the calendar for it later in the year – whilst Bahrain and Vietnam especially are looking pretty iffy. Both Grands Prix are instigating special measures, including a 14-day quarantine on travellers from countries where outbreaks are the most severe. That includes Italy.
Obviously, Italy is the home of Ferrari, but also AlphaTauri, some members of Haas and tyre supplier Pirelli. Whilst authorities in Bahrain are planning an expedited process for F1 personnel, Vietnam’s arrangements are less concrete at this point. There would always likely have been teething problems for a country hosting its ever first Grand Prix and the Coronavirus outbreak will have made thing considerably harder for them.
Ross Brawn has said that a race would not be held in a country that denies access to any team to ensure that the competition remains fair. The irony there, considering the controversial FIA/Ferrari settlement, will likely not have been lost on the teams.
