Pre-season testing is infamously hard to decipher and usually ends up in fans, pundits and the media jumping to conclusions that are, more often than not, totally wrong.
As you can see from this quiz, the car ending testing on top has very rarely proved to be on top when the lights go out for the opening race. And this year, more than ever before, there is very little to go on. Testing usually consists of two sets of three or four-day blocks but this year, thanks to the pandemic, the teams have had just three days to get to grips with their latest machines.
To compound matters further, conditions in Bahrain were very blustery and there was even a sandstorm…
Nonetheless, let’s see what we can figure out.
Not Plain Sailing for Mercedes
Mercedes have often been accused of ‘sandbagging’ during testing – and that would certainly have been easy in the Sakhir sandstorm – but this year, things look a little different. They have never been a team that does glory runs, but they have always maintained their metronomic consistency in pounding out lap after lap without issue.
This test, however, started badly with a gearbox glitch limiting Valtteri Bottas to seven laps on the first morning. And when seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton got into the car, he struggled to keep it pointing in the right direction. A series of uncharacteristic spins – once even ending up beached in a gravel trap – demonstrated the lack of rear stability that currently blights the W12.
Mercedes have proven themselves especially adept at problem solving, though, and nobody would be surprised to see them lock out the front row in two weeks. After all, it is better to find these issues now than in Q1 at the first grand prix.
Red Bull on the Rise
The struggles over at the Silver Arrows garage give a little hope for a more competitive season in 2021 and, if they do falter, Red Bull appear well-positioned to capitalise.
Max Verstappen produced the fastest time of the test and the Red Bull appeared on rails barring one early half-spin for the Dutchman. With AlphaTauri also often near the top of the timesheets – rookie Yuki Tsunoda even finished the final day a little under a tenth off Verstappen’s headline time – perhaps the new Honda power unit has made a significant jump in performance.
Either way, Red Bull’s Achilles’ heel in recent years has been a lack of understanding of their car in the early part of the season so, if they are on top of it already, that bodes well for their title challenge. The experience of Sergio Pérez should also help to develop the car; an area in which their academy prospects of the last two years will have struggled.
The Battle for Best of the Rest
Behind the likely top two teams, it’s anybody’s guess. The midfield was incredibly close last year, with McLaren ultimately edging the battle for third in the Constructors’ Championship, just ahead of Racing Point and Renault.
In the three months since the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, those two names have ceased to be, with Racing Point transforming into Aston Martin and Renault becoming Alpine. Aston Martin were many experts’ choice for the bronze medal this year, thanks to their acquisition of the fabled 2020 Mercedes rear suspension and the expertise brought by four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel.
Things have not started smoothly for the British racing green team, however, with varying technical problems reducing their running time significantly. Vettel completed the fewest laps of any driver. Their ultimate pace is still an unknown, though, as they focused exclusively on long runs and propped up the timing sheets on the final day, three seconds slower than the rest of the field.
McLaren are looking strong with no issues from their change to Mercedes power and some decent flying lap times. They also have a somewhat controversial interpretation of the new diffuser regulations which has garnered much attention. It has not yet been banned by the FIA and, if allowed to remain, will not be easy for the other teams to copy.
Alpine also kept their true pace under wraps but showed impressive consistency and ended with a healthy number of laps completed. Fernando Alonso picked up where he left off in 2018 and didn’t appear to be suffering any ill effects from his cycling accident last month. Whilst there were a few niggles for Ferrari – Charles Leclerc brought about the first red flag of the test – they are fairly positive with their progress. Particularly in terms of straight line which was, by far, their largest issue in 2020. The Scuderia will be hopeful of, at the very least, moving up from their lowly sixth position in last year’s standings.
As mentioned, AlphaTauri have looked very strong throughout the test and tied with Alfa Romeo for most laps completed at 422. Veteran Kimi Räikkönen said, “I guess we are faster than at our best at the end of 2020, but whether that translates into a better performance in the races, that we will have to see.” It looks likely that Williams and Haas will be fighting over the wooden spoon but with the order from last year reversed. Particularly as Guenther Steiner confirmed there would be no updates to this year’s Haas.
Some Predictions I’ll Probably Regret Making
Okay, time to put my neck on the line, make some outrageous predictions and then see just how wrong I was in nine months’ time.
World Champion
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MAX VERSTAPPEN
I know, I know. All the smart money is on Hamilton to seal that record-breaking eighth title in a year where the regulations have changed a relatively small amount since a Mercedes domination. But I just have a gut feeling. Verstappen seems to be getting stronger and, as mentioned, the Red Bull start to the year was far smoother than that of Mercedes. So, why not? Maybe the changing of the guard will arrive one year early than expected…
Surprise Winner
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DANIEL RICCIARDO
2020 saw two shock victories from Pierre Gasly and Pérez. They were arguably the first surprise winners since Pastor Maldonado in 2012 but, with Ferrari now in the midfield, there are only four front-running cars and that increases the chance of someone sneaking in there when the leaders trip up. And who better than Daniel Ricciardo? He has that knack for capitalising when the chance is there and McLaren appear to be on an upward trajectory. Shoeys all round.
Surprise Podium
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NICO HÜLKENBERG
The Hulk appears to be the reserve driver for half of the grid at this point, after proving his ability to step into a car on short notice and produce an impressive performance three times last year. He has been linked with stand-in roles for Red Bull, Aston Martin, McLaren and even Mercedes. Whilst Verstappen has been controversially vaccinated against COVID-19, most of the grid still has not and it seems likely that somebody will be forced to miss at least one race at some point. Let the curse finally be broken.
