In this post I will, for the most part, stick with my modus operandi of not granting the 2019 F1 testing times too much significance. But it’s no fun to entirely ignore them so let’s allow ourselves to read a little into them, especially when it comes to the headline news of the front-runners.
Let me pose some questions.
So, Were Mercedes aCTUALLY Sandbagging Then?
The Mercedes cars did finally unleash a bit of speed but they left it until the final hour of the final day of testing. Ferrari had already packed up, after Sebastian Vettel was left stationary at turn two with an electrical failure an hour or so earlier. That quick run on the softest tyres left him just 0.003 seconds shy of Vettel’s test-topping time of 1:16.221 which, even by Formula 1 standards, is very close. Fuel-and-tyre-corrected lists have put the Ferrari around half a second ahead but I’m not totally convinced; the apparent differences between the tyre compounds always appear to be overestimated in my experience. And will the Silver Arrows still have their infamous ‘party mode’ once it comes to the serious business?
From on-board footage, the Ferrari looks by far the easier of the two to drive – very balanced; equally happy in different corner types – and has done so since the first day of testing. An impressive feat with new regulations and a brand new car. My gut feeling is that Ferrari have the edge currently. Lewis Hamilton is unmatched when it comes to throwing a car round Albert Park on a Saturday, so he could well pull yet another pole out of nowhere, but I think by race day the red cars will be on top. One thing to bear in mind, though, is that Mercedes’ Achilles’ heel in recent years has been dealing with the dirty air when following another car. If the regulation changes have done their job, they may now be able to put up more of a fight when not in the lead. The rest of the season will be a story of who wins the development war and whether Ferrari can solves the operational issues that have plagued their last two championship campaigns. Of course, Helmut Marko would have you believe it will be Red Bull bringing the fight to Ferrari…which leads me nicely to my next point…
Where do Red Bull Stack Up?
Dr. Marko says a lot of things. And you get the impression a lot of them are just to stir things up – he’s quite similar to the ex-Godfather Bernie Ecclestone in that way. He has made a lot of ambitious claims of Red Bull’s impending success in the recent past which have not really come to fruition. But in fairness, this time round, the RB15 is looking pretty promising. It is a little harder to compare them with the other two of the ‘big three’ as they did not do any qualifying runs, but their long-run pace has been looking pretty good. Unfortunately, Pierre Gasly put paid to one of those on Thursday with a fairly hefty trip into the barriers. And it wasn’t his only one either. The young Frenchman will need to iron out those mistakes if he is to truly challenge Max Verstappen on the other side of the garage. He may be a year older than his teammate, but he has far less experience in the sport and the consensus seems to be that Verstappen has now added much-needed maturity to his undeniable speed.
If my hand was forced, I would say I can see Red Bull matching up roughly where they did last season – nicking the odd win whilst also having some off days and a fair few retirements. Whilst their relationship with Honda has certainly started smoothly, Red Bull cars tend to ask a lot of their power units and I can see a few teething issues appearing once everything gets turned up to 11. Nonetheless, I think the Honda deal is a good move in the long-term and could see Red Bull as genuine championship contenders again given time.
How Close is the Midfield Battle?
Very. In a word. Renault, Haas, Toro Rosso, McLaren and Alfa Romeo all appear to be within a couple of tenths of each other, whilst Racing Point were openly running a very basic car for these tests, with many new parts coming for either Melbourne or the first of the European races – the return to Barcelona in May. With all the variables, I don’t think there is a lot of point in dissecting such similar times to try and figure out who is looking the favourite for 4th place. Just rest assured that the ‘Formula 1.5‘ championship, as it has been christened, looks like being even more closely fought than last season. And it seems they have all closed the gap to the front-runners a little, so we may see the odd podium position being stolen more often.
That just leaves Williams, who are as off the pace as expected after their late arrival. The car has, commendably, not suffered any obvious issues and the team have amassed a fair amount of laps. But Robert Kubica admitted that he had not done a run longer than 15 laps so we will have to see how they deal with a full race distance in two weeks time. It is a real shame to see Williams just making up the numbers.
And Finally, How Quick Are the Cars in General?
This year’s regulation changes were expected to result in a drop in performance and a rise in lap times. But that hasn’t really happened. Whilst some of the lap time can be accounted for by, amongst other factors, more favourable conditions than at last year’s test, the headline time ended up just shy of a second quicker than last year’s. It would appear, as ever, that the brainboxes behind the scenes have found ways around the rules to exploit loopholes and make the air go in exactly the directions around the car they so choose. And they certainly have the potential to go much faster at this stage of development.
Overall, this season has the makings of a fantastic one. Let’s hope that’s still the case come Abu Dhabi in around 9 months time.
