Predictions that I’ll probably regret making

1st: Sebastian Vettel

I just have a gut feeling that Ferrari are finally going to pull it together this year and that Vettel’s experience in the end will be enough to see him to the title. The Ferrari has been behaving very nicely in pre-season and we know from his Red Bull years what he can do if he’s in a car he likes, leading from the front.

2nd: Lewis Hamilton

Whilst I believe Ferrari will have the better car this year, I also believe that Hamilton is the better driver and that he’ll push Vettel all the way. He won’t be in a hurry to give up the mantle of being the most successful active driver (at least in terms of championships) and he overcame the odds in, arguably, a slightly slower car last season. But it may end up too big a challenge to conquer this year.

3rd: Charles Leclerc

I can see Leclerc surprising people early on and matching Vettel’s pace; potentially leading the championship after a few races (à la Hamilton in ’07). But ultimately I think a bit of inconsistency will creep in and he’ll slip back as it gets to the sharp end of the season. We saw those rookie mistakes in the shape of a few spins last year – not that that couldn’t also be said of Vettel – and I think the unbridled passion of the tifosi weighs on even the strongest of shoulders. Leclerc has remained realistic about this season and finding his feet so, whilst he may not come out on top this year, I expect great things from the young Monegasque.

4th: Max Verstappen

As I have said previously, I think Red Bull will be there or thereabouts this season – snatching the odd win and getting on the podium a fair bit. They’re unlikely to be in a position to challenge for titles in the first year of their partnership with Honda, but I think Verstappen will continue to channel his speed into more consistent results and less crashes this year. And end the season with a repeat of last year’s respectable 4th place.

5th: Valtteri Bottas

It’s very much make or break this year for Bottas. ‘Valtteri, this is James’ became one of the most overused memes of last season and that is how the F1 world now sees him – as the ‘wingman’ he so didn’t want to be. Ironically, his disapproval of the term is what made a headline out of it and caused it to stick. But sadly, excellent new facial hair or not, you just can’t see him posing much more of a challenge to Hamilton this year. It can’t be easy going up against an all-time great but after three years in his shadow, and with the highly-rated Mercedes protégé Esteban Ocon waiting in the wings, will it be the Finn’s final year in a Silver Arrow? I think so.

1st: Scuderia Ferrari

As stated above, I think the Scuderia will finally get it right this season and come out with their first Constructors’ Championship in over a decade. After a lot of pain and a fair few near misses during that decade, it would be a poetic result and a fitting tribute to their former chairman, Sergio Marchione, who died last year.

2nd: Mercedes AMG Petronas Motorsport

Mercedes equalled Ferrari’s record of five consecutive double World Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championship titles last year and they would love to make that record their own. But it appears that the team they are trying to prise that record from have produced the best car and the toughest challenge that the German team have faced since they began their domination of the sport in 2014. They’ll push them all the way but maybe six in a row will be just too big of an ask.

3rd: Aston Martin Red Bull Racing

Come 2021, with a couple more years’ experience and integration for Honda and new regulations for Adrian Newey to get his teeth into, I think Red Bull could well end up the team to beat again if they play their cards right. But for now I don’t see them challenging the top two on a regular basis and probably having a few more retirements than them as well. Obviously no one looks close to challenging them for third though.

4th: Renault F1 Team

The midfield pack is already widely-accepted as very, very tight this year. But if I have to pick someone to finish best of the rest then I’m going for Renault. They probably have the best driver line-up of the group and clear long-term aims of making the top three into a top four, towards which they have been making steady progress in the last couple of years. And being a works team never hurts.

5th: Alfa Romeo Racing

I struggled to decide between Alfa and Haas for fifth place. Both the effective Ferrari B-teams have shown some good form and put forward a good case for being in the top five. Haas produced what some believe to be the second-quickest fuel-corrected run in pre-season testing. But I fancy the Italian team to edge it over the whole season, based mostly on the impressive progress they made through 2018 with their new funding.

Lando Norris

I may have gone with Antonio Giovinazzi but he doesn’t count as a rookie, having competed in two races at the start of 2017. So of the three true rookies – Britons, Lando Norris and George Russell, and British-born but racing under a Thai flag, Alexander Albon – my choice would be Norris. Sadly, it looks a lot like Russell’s Williams will be struggling with the 107% rule and, whilst their two teams look finely balanced, Albon has looked a little shaky in testing. Norris also beat him in F2 last year.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Aside from the bizarre aesthetics of Baku itself, as the cars flash between backdrops of castles, Renaissance architecture and new, futuristic towers, the last two races have been absolute corkers. 2017 had Vettel deliberately driving into Hamilton under the safety car and Bottas passing Stroll on the line for 2nd place. Then fast-forward 12 months and we had that Red Bull crash and Bottas this time picking up a puncture whilst leading with a few laps to go. The Azerbaijan GP just seems to have a knack for unpredictability and drama, so it’s where my bet for the race of the year goes.

Fernando Alonso to Red Bull

If this prediction comes true, then I will quite rightly gloat for the entirety of 2020. Let’s say that… Gasly gets trounced by Verstappen. Helmut Marko refuses to re-promote Kvyat to the big team and Albon hasn’t shone. The Red Bull junior programme has run a little dry. Alonso has won the Indy 500 at his second attempt and, with the Triple Crown under his belt, is now interested in F1 again. Christian Horner picks up the phone…

NO